one of the reasons, if not the main one for small salmon this year is the quakes especially 2011 disrupted the main food supply (nz or stout sprats) this year have shown poor hatchery returns so far though fish are still arriving. there has been an absence of 4 year at sea fish. the good news is there have been good numbers of 2year at sea fish. niwa in the 90’s said that if you had at lest 16% 2 year at sea fish in a run the next year would usually be a good one. example in 1990 glenariffe received a run of 3,350 fish, one of their best however what concerned the scientists was that only 8% were 2 year at sea fish. the following 1991 the return to glenariffe was about 1500.